Data Correlation shows the relationship between measurable school performance and the grades Ofsted actually awarded. Not a claim about causation — a picture of how the distributions overlap, which is usually more informative than a headline average.
Does attainment determine your Ofsted grade?
The distributions answer this better than any assertion. Plot a metric against grade and you see substantial overlap between adjacent grades — schools with similar attainment landing on different judgements, and schools with quite different attainment landing on the same one.
That overlap is the finding. It tells you how much of the judgement your data explains, and by implication how much it does not, which is a more useful basis for planning than assuming a threshold exists.
Two views: single metric and combined metrics
The single-metric view is a strip chart: one measure, distributed across grades, with your school marked so you can see where you fall within the spread rather than against a mean.
The combined-metrics view is a bivariate scatter, letting you plot two measures against each other with grade encoded. This is where clustering becomes visible — the combinations of conditions that tend to accompany a particular judgement.
Data Correlation is available to subscribers
Full access is £49 a year for your school, including three users. Additional users from £15 a year each. A free account gives you the core data views and the weekly email digest.
Frequently asked questions
What is the relationship between attainment and Ofsted grades?
There is a relationship, but the distributions overlap substantially between adjacent grades. Data Correlation shows those distributions directly so you can see how much of the variation in grades performance data accounts for, rather than assuming a threshold.
Which metrics can I compare?
Attainment and attendance measures drawn from DfE performance data — KS2 attainment for primary schools, and Attainment 8, Progress 8 and GCSE results for secondary schools — plotted individually or two at a time against inspection grade.